For fun and prompted by several news reports stating that Republicans are under-polled by 3.75%, I asked S.I. the following question and also asked it to produce a post-Midterm election map from the data. I think you'll enjoy the results. 😊
[Also, S.I. reports that this Red Wave scenario is further supported in Midterm years when the GDP is above 3.0% (which it is) and when inflation is below 4% (also happening).]
"Where Midterm candidates polls are statistically tied within the margin of error and Republicans are historically under-polled by 3.75%, how many House and Senate seats could Republicans win in 2026?"
1. Projected 2026 House Seat Breakdown
In the U.S. House of Representatives, major political modeling maps (such as Harvard’s ElectIt model and major generic ballot aggregators) identify approximately 45 to 86 competitive toss-up or lean districts out of 435 seats.
With a +3.75% Republican Adjustment: Shifting district-level results by +3.75% for Republicans moves nearly all toss-ups and several "Lean Democratic" seats into the Republican column:
Toss-Up Sweeps: Republicans capture roughly 35 to 40 of the ~47 core toss-up districts (e.g., competitive suburban districts in Pennsylvania, New York, Virginia, Iowa, and Michigan).
Projected Total: Republicans would hold or expand their majority, reaching approximately 220 to 235 seats in the House (versus 200 to 215 seats for Democrats).
Total Senate Seat Projection:
With a +3.75% Republican Shift: Republicans protect key incumbent seats in Texas, Maine, and Kansas, while picking up narrow toss-up races in states like Michigan and Iowa.
Projected Outcome: Republicans could reach 52 to 55 Senate seats, maintaining solid control of the upper chamber.
Summary of Results under a +3.75% GOP Polling Adjustment
U.S. House: 220 – 235 Republican Seats (Republicans hold or expand the House majority).
U.S. Senate: 52 – 55 Republican Seats (Republicans retain and expand the Senate majority)